I started the last blog posting in the Enriched Living Section criticizing the use of a question market in the headline of a story. In this case it was a financial show, and it happens frequently there. I think they're afraid of making a stance.
So, here are my thoughts, in brief:
- There are always Bull Markets in particular stocks, and even in down markets with the whole market.
- The market has been horrible this year, so far. Will it correct? Meaning, will it move back up? Ahhh, that is the question. The answer is simple: It always has.
- I think there are so many great companies, making tons of money. Our American companies are spreading around the world. The world needs what we have. The reverse side of this is companies coming here, investing and selling what they have.
- Okay, now I'm going to wade into a very unusual topic. The market is what it is: An Open-Air Marketplace. Prices of stocks reflect the future—as in earnings. But, the old adage comes to play: Buy on Rumors, Sell on Fact (news).
- There is, as I'm writing this, a mini-rally going on. The market bounced off a down day (550 points on the Dow) yesterday, and this has continued today.
- So what are the chances of a bull market. Well, pretty good, as we are in one, though sluggish as it has been. There are and there will always be corrections.
With the above seven points under our belt, let's explore the purpose of this article. The question is this: Will the market move up? Will our stocks rebound?
There is so much speculation—the bears are near at hand. They seem to have some vested in the market going down. Hmmmm. That's a nefarious thought. The speculators/pundits seem to factor in to their pricing models and projections all of the things that will go wrong. "Will go wrong," Replaces, "Can go wrong."
They seem to outthink themselves. Just because the list is a bit long, IT DOESN'T MEAN EVERYTHING WILL GO WRONG. That's it.
Here are the key items (most taken from the headlines—and remember, "If it don't bleed, it don't lead." They have to sell their newspapers.
1. China is in the forefront. But China will do okay. Well, okay, as good as it can with top-down communist leaders. But their economy was humming along at a 9% growth rate.
We're sitting here with this communist-minded president and his overbearing bureaucracy, limping along at 0% to 1.5% growth rate. And almost every quarter, they readjust their numbers lower. So, China is down to 5% to 6% and we're made to believe that the sky is falling.
2. The EU (Europe) and their brand of control is weak. But it's not going away. And I like my Italian Olives.
3. OIL is a drag on the markets. This is a perverse and pathetic way to gauge anything. Again, as I was writing this, the OIL Supply expectations came out. All morning they've been saying that the increase in supply reserves should be 2.5 million barrels. Anything over that, the market will go down. Normally, stocks go up a little with oil prices going down, but as of late, it's the opposite. They seem to be tracking each other. Weird. But, in your rational mind, doesn't it seem like cheaper gas prices should bode well for the market. Go Figure. The price of oil went up. It freaked out all of the experts.
4. The Fed seems to be intent on raising interest rates. Okay, so Grandma's savings account will make some extra money. I think it's a good thing. Can anyone say that a big corporation will not get a standard loan because the interest rates they'll have to pay are 6.25% instead of 6.15%. I think the Fed is watched so much because these people don't have a life.
So to repeat: Some of these things may happen, but not all of them. And eternal optimist that I am, I say ,"so what?" We're okay. We'll do just find.
This is one of the reasons I like Writing Covered Calls. This volatility creates nice option premiums. Most people lose at straight options, but will WCC we put all of these forces (plus time) to work on our behalf.
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